December 2008 Colorado Revenue Forecast

There are huge differences between the Executive Branch’s Forecast (OSPB) and the Legislative Branch’s Forecast (Leg Council)

Legislative Council (Leg Council) and the Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB) reported huge differences between their December Revenue Forecasts. OSPB’s $70 million shortfall forecast was much more optimistic than Leg Council’s $632 million short fall estimate, but neither can be dismissed as incorrect at this time.

The JBC met over the lunch hour to discuss the difference between the Leg Council Forecast and the OSPB Forecast. Attached, are the charts from that meeting that compare the two forecasts side-by-side. (Some of the final numbers on the attached JBC document may slightly differ from the forecasts due to statutory provisions and action not yet taken by the JBC)

2008-09 Expected Short Fall Below the 6% Spending Limit

Leg Council: $632 million
($529 million GF decrease from the prior year)
OSPB: $73.5 million

2009-10 Expected Short Fall Below the 6% Spending Limit

Leg Council: $385 million
OSPB: $354.5 million

2010-11 TABOR Refund
Leg Council: $0
OSPB: $197.8 million


Differences in Total Gross GF Revenues
(Which accounts for some of the difference in the forecasts)

2007-08
Leg C: $7,742.8
OSPB: $7,742.7
(.1)

2008-09
Leg C: $7,213.5
OSPB: $7,775.0
($561.5)
2009-10
Leg C: $7,260.8
OSPB: $7,952.7
($708.1)


What’s next…

OSPB and Leg Council will need to get together, crunch the numbers, and determine the actual short fall. Once this number is determined, the JBC will likely begin taking action on the 2008-09 and 2009-10 budgets depending on which numbers they believe are more accurate.


To view Leg Council’s Revenue Forecast in its entirety, visit the link below.
http://www.state.co.us/gov_dir/leg_dir/lcsstaff/Scrollpages/EconForecastScroll08.htm
To view OSPB’s Revenue Forecast in its entirety, visit their website at
http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=1229570381936&ssbinary=true


The Capitol Success Group
YOUR Public Policy Professionals

1601 Arapahoe St. 10th Floor
Denver, CO 80202
www.capitolsuccess.com

2008 Ballot Chart

Sept. 2008 Rev Forecast (OSPB v. Leg C)

Colorado September Revenue Forcast

Four times a year the Joint Budget Committee (JBC) asks the Governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB) and the non-partisan Legislative Council (Leg Council) to each submit quarterly estimates of the revenue forecast for the current year, and for the next five years. This forecast will give the JBC and idea how much money will be in the General Fund (GF), Cash Fund (CF) and how much money the state received under the Referendum C (Ref. C) five-year timeout period.
Leg Council and OSPB met with the JBC on September 22, 2008 to report their third quarterly revenue forecast of 2008.

Legislative Council’s Forecast Estimate

Total revenue has decreased by 2% ($887.4 million below the amount June Forecast). The General Fund is estimated to be $127.1 million below the 6% spending limit

To view Leg Council’s Revenue Forecast in its entirety, visit the link below.
http://www.state.co.us/gov_dir/leg_dir/lcsstaff/Scrollpages/EconForecastScroll08.htm


OSPB’s Forecast Estimate

General Fund revenue is expected to reach $8 million in FY 2008-09. The General Fund is estimated to fully appropriate up to the 6% spending limit

To view OSPB’s Revenue Forecast in its entirety, visit their website at http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite?c=Page&cid=1189067510981&pagename=GovRitter%2FGOVRLayout